Absztrakt

For decades, the long-term decline of homicide counted as the most spectacular representation of the pacification of the world. The theory of a centuries-old decline was first formulated by Robert Ted Gurr in 1981, and developed later, in 2001, by Manuel Eisner, who enlarged the scope of the study and collected criminal statistics from different regions spanning several centuries. Based on these statistics, Eisner tried to prove that the exceptionally high homicide rates of the later Middle Ages underwent a constant decrease during the early modern era, reaching nowadays’ ratio of less than 1 for 100.000 inhabitants. This development has been usually connected to the civilizing process described by Norbert Elias. According to this theory, the repression of instincts due to the dissemination of an urban and courtly ideal, together with the population growth and the introduction of the absolutist state resulted in a decrease of aggression. Nowadays, the collection of evidence and connecting the databases initiated by Eisner has become an important international project, which provides an appealing basis to all sorts of statistical analyses. However, the relevance and accuracy of the theory have been called into question since 2000. The sharpest criticism was formulated by historians of the pre-modern period. On the one hand, they called attention to the excessively fragmented and incomplete nature of the data in the pre-statistical period and argued that the adequate interpretation of these data as well as the medieval and early modern records that produced them necessitates a sound knowledge of their origin and context. The critiques question the validity of the data and statistical methods the theory is based on, dispute the existence of a general and linear decline, and point to the important regional differences and temporary fluctuations. On the other hand, historians of medieval and early modern times highlight alternative motives behind the changes – or even violence itself. They argue that each period has its specificities, and simplicist, all-encompassing explanations cannot provide adequate answers. Instead of assuming a homogenous development spanning over several centuries, the critiques exhort researchers to understand local contexts and use the number of homicides and violence to explore the mechanisms and problems of a given community.